830
ACUS11 KWNS 092031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092031
NEZ000-COZ000-092200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 092031Z - 092200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS DEVELOPING STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INGEST GREATER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...NLDN LIGHTNING DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICT AN
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CO, WITH HINTS AT CU TOPS
BREACHING A CIRRUS CLOUD DECK. A MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH THE 85-90 F RANGE, INDICATING ADEQUATE LIFT TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F IN WESTERN NE, WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
1000-3000 J/KG, PROGRESSING FROM FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN NE.
THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 8.5+ C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL ACCOMPANIED BY A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. SINCE THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS, IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN STORMS WILL
EXPERIENCE AN APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN INTENSITY. NONETHELESS, A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 06/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40010245 40400301 40910332 41680338 42190312 42490246
42570184 42470123 42100083 41620054 41080043 40550054
40280080 40030130 40010245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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