574
ACUS11 KWNS 092217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092216
NEZ000-COZ000-092315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092216Z - 092315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY INITIALLY BUT THE
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. A WW WILL
BE ISSUED BY 23Z
DISCUSSION...AS OF 22 UTC, VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM HAS RECOVERED QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUDS WHILE MAINTAINING ROBUST SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, INCREASING TO THE LOW 70S F FARTHER EAST. A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG) IS IN PLACE WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS.
THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH A MIXED/CLUSTER
SUPERCELL MODE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WHERE HIGHER CLOUD BASES ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE, BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THIS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER THIS EVENING AS A FORECAST 40+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 06/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...
LAT...LON 42959875 42269829 40439876 40520092 40790192 41130245
41460258 42800239 42959875
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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