863
ACUS11 KWNS 100006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100005
INZ000-ILZ000-100200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100005Z - 100200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUSTS THIS EVENING. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED AND A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 00 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A REMNANT MCV OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
WABASH VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE, OWING TO MID
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG. WITH BULK SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT, THE OBSERVED
CLUSTER/MULTICELL STORM MODE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IN TOWARD THE
OH/KY BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH MAY SUPPORT A
RISK FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS WITH WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF BROADER ORGANIZATION SHOULD KEEP STORM
ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK ISOLATED. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATER
TONIGHT. THUS, WHILE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE, A WW
IS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 06/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...
LAT...LON 39998735 40638680 40708606 40538534 40298497 40068487
39678485 39228495 38898547 38658620 38678694 38868752
39068782 39268786 39998735
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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