126
ACUS03 KWNS 100726
SWODY3
SPC AC 100725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY, WITH A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEFORE MERGING WITH LEE
TROUGHING EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
..MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
A HOT AND MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. WHILE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST, THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH, IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IS FORECAST FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH; HOWEVER, BOTH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THERE IS SOME MODEL
SIGNAL THAT STORMS WILL COALESCE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
..MID-SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH HIGH PLAINS
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE MODELS VARY ON THE
LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS, WHICH COULD POSE
SOME SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ADDED TO SOME OF THE AREA ONCE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
..MEAD.. 06/10/2026
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