340
ACUS11 KWNS 101735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101735
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101735Z - 101930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE WESTERN MN BORDER. THIS
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS BOOSTED BY A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONE ALOFT -- CURRENTLY ARCING THROUGH
CENTRAL SD -- EVIDENT IN UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DIURNAL
HEATING AMIDST SCATTERED CLOUDINESS HAS YIELDED TEMPERATURES RISING
TO AROUND 80 F AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-/UPPER-
60S F. PER CURRENT MESOANALYSIS, THIS ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500+ J/KG.
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INITIATION
AND MATURATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN. WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY, WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INDUCING LARGE CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR. WHILE RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS, THE LARGER BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A WIND AND LARGE-HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.
..FLOURNOY/MOSIER.. 06/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 45979739 47389707 48609631 48679491 48249337 46989267
45929297 45929297 45129516 45239691 45979739
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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