844
ACUS11 KWNS 101906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101906
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...
VALID 101906Z - 102000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS WW301 AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. IT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE/EXTENSION MAY BE
NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SCENARIO.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WW301 AND PORTIONS OF WI AND IL. AN
EXPANSIVE STRATIFORM REGION IS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY,
AND THE COLD POOL IS LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY DEFICITS AROUND 10 F
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A 64-KT GUST WAS REPORTED AT 1740Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOWING PORTION OF THE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WI (NORTHWEST OF THE DELINEATED REGION IN THIS
MCD). THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LESS
ORGANIZED THAN ITS NORTHERN COUNTERPART, PROBABLY OWING TO LESS DEEP
ASCENT DRIVEN BY LESS-LINE-ORTHOGONAL BULK SHEAR. IT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL CAPE AXIS, CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG, AND THE LEADING LINE HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION (PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL IL). THE
18Z ILX SOUNDING DEPICTS A RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED ENVIRONMENT WITH
AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN SOME COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THE MCS PROPAGATES
THROUGH CENTRAL IL. WATCH ISSUANCE/EXTENSION IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
ADDRESS THIS SCENARIO.
..FLOURNOY/MOSIER.. 06/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39169049 39489188 39969064 41038986 41768954 42208874
42148784 41628715 40358707 39448837 39169049
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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