250
ACUS11 KWNS 101957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101957
MNZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...
VALID 101957Z - 102200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST MN AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN NORTHWESTERN
MN ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THEY HAVE
PRODUCED SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS: 39 KTS WAS REPORTED AT 1908Z IN
ROSEAU, MN. THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER MID-LEVEL CYCLONE, AND CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS DIURNAL WARMING CONTINUES. A CORRIDOR OF
1500+ J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST 30-40 KTS OF
0-6-KM SHEAR. CURRENT RAP PROFILES INDICATE A NEGLIGIBLY INHIBITED
AND RELATIVELY MOIST TROPOSPHERE WITH LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
SHEAR IS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY, YIELDING FAST, NORTHEASTWARD
MOTIONS FOR ANY STRONGER, DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAT CAN FORM. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MORE LINEAR/MIXED-MODE INITIATION,
CONSISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS SORT OF CONVECTIVE MODE TO CONTINUE,
WITH A MIX OF CLUSTERY/MIXED-MODE CONVECTION WITH STRONGER, DISCRETE
STRUCTURES ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THE MOST MATURE STORMS, WITH A TORNADO OR
TWO POSSIBLE IF INCREASED UPDRAFT DEVIANCE OCCURS.
..FLOURNOY.. 06/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47519605 48439578 48939568 49409519 49429471 48929442
48659238 47599193 46509242 45989388 45909528 46499607
47519605
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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