096
ACUS01 KWNS 110121
SWODY1
SPC AC 110119
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL, A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 75
MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA. SEVERAL LINES AND
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THESE
REGIONS EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
..CENTRAL KANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND IOWA
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
SUPERCELLUAR AND POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO UPSCALE GROWTH, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WIND.
ONGOING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IS REMAINING A MIXED-MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. WITHIN THIS AREA, STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WHILE STORM MODE
REMAINS SEMI-DISCRETE. THE 10% TORNADO RISK AND 30% HAIL RISK AREAS
WERE REMOVED WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MORE LINEAR
STORM MODES.
..EASTERN NEBRASKA/FAR WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN
NE/WESTERN IA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THESE SOLUTIONS, MOST NOTABLY RECENT RAP RUNS AND THE
NAM, HINT THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT PARCELS ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO A DAMAGING MCS INTO
THE END OF THE CURRENT D1 PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING. A 30% WIND AREA
WAS INTRODUCED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN IOWA IN SUPPORT
OF RECENT HRRR RUNS WHICH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF DAMAGING
WIND ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
..THORNTON.. 06/11/2026
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