485
ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR
POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN WHILE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS AT
12Z FRIDAY WILL ADVANCE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A LEE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STEEP, THE
PRESENCE OF A HOT, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NY AND PA WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LAG THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR TO THE WEST, LEADING TO A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,
LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE UPSLOPE REGIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION; HOWEVER,
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY STRONG, AND IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE GREATER
INSTABILITY, SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
..MEAD.. 06/11/2026
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