793
ACUS11 KWNS 110652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110651
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-110845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 110651Z - 110845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA. LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN RISKS THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, A
SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN WESTERN KANSAS. REGIONAL VAD DATA SHOWS
A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ON MRMS MESH. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY OR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO INTENSIFY
THIS MORNING. LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID, THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PROHIBITIVELY STABLE. AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST AS WELL. THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO MEAN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WHILE
RATHER CONDITIONAL, A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND AT LEAST LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS.
..WENDT/GUYER.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40499425 40039519 39889608 39939763 39959827 39969870
39969870 40199999 40200014 40500040 40840043 41300002
41659915 41829712 41819624 41809440 41589386 41019397
40499425
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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