278
ACUS11 KWNS 111454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111453
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINIOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...
VALID 111453Z - 111630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. A TORNADO RISK MAY
DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IA. TWO MAIN SURGES
ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THIS NORTH-SOUTH LINE, WITH THE SOUTHEAST IA
PORTION CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE SECTION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
IA. MEANWHILE, A TRAILING PORTION OF THE MCS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO, WHERE BACKBUILDING IS OCCURRING.
IT APPEARS THE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST ACROSS IL AND SOUTHERN WI
WILL NEED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION FOR THIS EXISTING
MCS TO REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND
ILX SHOW A STABILIZED AIR MASS FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS, WITH GPS PWAT
SENSORS INDICATING A DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
HOWEVER, VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE MCS, AND MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS IL AND VICINITY.
SOME TORNADO RISK EXISTS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE MCS. HERE, 0-1 KM SRH WILL
REMAIN STRONGEST, AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE VOLATILE.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39808969 39639044 39979227 40059298 40639244 40879182
41159148 41669130 42039116 42169119 42008980 41958974
41838906 41328882 40858895 39808969
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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