715
FNUS21 KWNS 111535
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ELEVATED WIND/RH THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET CONCURRENTLY FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL WY. THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY, FUELS REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY (ERCS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE) OVER THIS REGION AS A
RESULT OF THE DRYING EVENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED LAST WEEKEND OVER THIS SPECIFIC
AREA, HOLD OVER FIRES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NEARBY CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DRAWN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH REMAIN AS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS THERE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND LESS ALIGNED WITH THE VALLEY'S ORIENTATION.
..STEARNS.. 06/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1240 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT BASIN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE LATE EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST, THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS) WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, VERY
DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.
...FOUR CORNERS, SOUTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EXIT THE REGION,
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO PLATEAU WILL
SUPPORT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH AMID 10-15% RH. IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT, VEERING NORTH-EASTERLY 15-20 MPH WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH) AND RH VALUES OF 10-20% WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS WHERE DRY FUELS
EXIST. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ELEVATED WIND/RH
SPREADING FARTHER EAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL AND RESULTANT SUB-CRITICAL FUELS PRECLUDE
AN EXPANSION OF HIGHLIGHTS. BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE CO PLAINS AND GAP-FLOW
REGIONS, BUT THE LOCALIZED EXTENT AND LIMITED DURATION OF STRONGER
WINDS PRECLUDES CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..SACRAMENTO VALLEY
CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL PERSIST WITH VERY POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES (RH VALUES OF 20-30% OVERNIGHT). AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN AS 10-15% RH LINGERS INTO
THE EVENING. AN EXTENDED BURNING PERIOD AND DRY FINE FUELS SUPPORT
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WITHIN THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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