830
ACUS11 KWNS 111627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111627
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-111830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
MARYLAND...NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111627Z - 111830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
WARRANTED TO COVER THESE THREATS.
DISCUSSION...AMIDST A RELATIVELY ZONAL (IF NOT SLIGHTLY RIDGED)
UPPER-AIR PATTERN, A SUBTLE IMPULSE IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND CENTRAL OH AS OF 1600Z. ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IN THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, DIURNAL HEATING AND WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS DRIVING TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-/MID- 80S AND 70S F, RESPECTIVELY. THE
12Z PIT (PITTSBURGH, PA) SOUNDING SHOWED STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND
1-3 KM AGL (UP TO AROUND 7 C/KM) THAT DECREASE WITH HEIGHT, AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THIS MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
PERSIST AS THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. ASSOCIATED FORCING
AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LARGE CAPE
VALUES (AROUND 2000+ J/KG) WILL SUPPORT SOME DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CORES OR MERGING OUTFLOWS. THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKER-SHEAR REGIME SHOULD TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT,
BUT SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..FLOURNOY/GLEASON.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 37368097 39508197 40818180 41968114 42218023 42147868
40597799 38557834 37417947 37368097
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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