174
ACUS11 KWNS 111723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111722
ILZ000-111845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...
VALID 111722Z - 111845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER 1.00" AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS THROUGH MIDDAY. TORNADO RISK IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST JUST NORTH OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS IA
THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED, THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS RESIDING AHEAD
OF THE MCS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKENING.
AT THIS TIME, RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OUTFLOW
PROCEEDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL, WITH PRIMARILY
ELEVATED STORMS WITH PERIODIC STRONG CORES TRAVELING EAST/NORTHEAST.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST
THREAT.
NOTABLY, GPS PWAT SENSORS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VALUES
(1.60-1.85") OUT OF MO AND INTO IL, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO RISE. THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE WELL TO THE WEST,
AND SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WARM SECTOR. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE MCS WILL STALL AND
MIX/RETREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AT THAT TIME,
WITH ADDITIONAL WATCHES LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40188959 39919041 39989082 40249104 40579098 40919074
41089042 41328981 41698920 41878814 41778800 41148807
40518902 40188959
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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