950
ACUS11 KWNS 111809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111808
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN
IOWA...FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 311...
VALID 111808Z - 112045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, AND NEW/UPDATED TORNADO WATCHES
ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF IOWA, MISSOURI, AND ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
MODIFYING/RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA WHERE
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS.
MEANWHILE, THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY EAST,
ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FRONT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
IA INTO NORTHWEST MO AS OF 18Z WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
IT. GPS PWAT IS OVER 1.80" NOW INTO SOUTHERN IA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE RETREATING OUTFLOW,
WITH 0-1 SRH OVER 200 M2/S2.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD
FRONT, AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE NEAR THE MODIFYING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 55 KT AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH TO SUPPORT RIGHTWARD CELL
PROPAGATION RELATIVE TO THE COLD FRONT ORIENTATION. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO ARE LIKELY AS
HIGH-PWAT AIR MASS SUPPORTS AMPLE DOWNDRAFT MATERIAL WITH ANY LARGER
STORM CLUSTERS OR LINEAR MODES NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40359360 40869338 41379301 41469282 41699196 41769157
41699111 41429084 41019079 40589079 40169089 39919133
39899157 39739279 39759326 40119358 40359360
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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