541
ACUS11 KWNS 112112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112111
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 313...
VALID 112111Z - 112245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 313 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OUT OF KILX DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING
SUPERCELL WITH AN ORGANIZING MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE NEAR CARTHAGE,
IL. LIVE WEB STREAMS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYLONE AS
WELL, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOGENESIS IS INCREASING.
THIS CELL IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH HAS BEEN INCREASING PER THE KILX VWP (0-1 KM SRH
HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 200 M2/S2). PER LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES, DOWNSTREAM STP VALUES ARE ALSO INCREASING TO 6-7. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERACTIONS APPEARS LIMITED FOR THE
SHORT TERM (NEXT HOUR OR SO), SUGGESTING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL IS INCREASING WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OR ONE
OR MORE TORNADOES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE A STRONG/INTENSE TORNADO.
..MOORE.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40329155 40649141 41399011 41388972 41108948 40868946
40598945 40398966 40269014 40199091 40149118 40169142
40329155
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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