057
ACUS11 KWNS 112210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112209
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-120045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 112209Z - 120045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS (50-65
MPH) WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA, SOUTHERN NY, AND EASTERN WV AT
AROUND 30-35 KT. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MEASURED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH. AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA/NY, THIS BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA AND VICINITY BY AROUND 01Z. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES AMID LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (50-65 MPH) INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED LINE OF STORMS AND 35-KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM (SAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP). A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38687631 39227640 40347630 41077581 41637525 41797473
41637420 41337383 40737384 39957405 39047465 38447524
38357558 38357558 38427597 38687631
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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