458
ACUS11 KWNS 112339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112338
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
INDIANA...FAR WESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN ILLINOIS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 112338Z - 120115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR EAST OF
TORNADO WATCH 313.
DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MODIFY/LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THE 21Z ILX RAOB IS PRESENT WITH
NEAR 4000 J/KG MLCAPE. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INSTABILITY
IS MORE LIMITED, BUT SHEAR IS VERY STRONG WITH 250 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE PER AN 22Z RAOB LAUNCHED BY
THE VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT IN VALPARAISO,
INDIANA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY ALONG A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, EMBEDDED
QLCS TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS
EVENING, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR, OR HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO
MATURE BEFORE BEING CAUGHT BY THE MAIN SQUALL LINE, BUT THESE STORMS
COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS
EVENING.
..BENTLEY/SMITH.. 06/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39568995 40378866 40948771 41958718 42708671 43028575
43028496 42878447 42168429 41088455 40078471 39638548
39258687 39568995
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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