030
ACUS01 KWNS 121250
SWODY1
SPC AC 121248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST,
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..EAST INCLUDING APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC
LATER TODAY, WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLIES ALOFT AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT MODEST EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (GENERALLY 20-30 KT) WILL OVERLAP RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING
AND MODEST BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH TIME AND MOVE
EASTWARD, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE EVEN WEAKER INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS VICINITY. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG HEATING OF A
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL, AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN ROBUST DESTABILIZATION FROM THE RATON MESA
VICINITY INTO THE ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST WESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
(HIGHEST VALUES NORTH), CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SUBTLE, BUT EVENTUAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
INITIAL STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, WITH A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOW AND A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING,
WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE-WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FARTHER SOUTH, MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS, WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS,
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN IOWA
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD, IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SATURDAY, FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTAEN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA, WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
ELEVATED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION (WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED BY MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS) AND COVERAGE OF STORMS PRIOR
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 12Z SATURDAY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT, IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. HAIL-RELATED
PROBABILITIES MAY ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED FOR TONIGHT, BUT WILL
DEFER AN ADDITIONAL OUTLOOK CYCLE FOR ADDITIONAL
OBSERVATIONAL/UPPER-AIR DATA.
..UPPER MIDWEST
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA NEAR/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ROBUST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW
500 J/KG, WITH AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR WHERE THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP. SOME THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND COULD EVOLVE ACROSS SOME PART OF THIS REGION,
AND PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND STORM COVERAGE.
..OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MORNING CONVECTION, ROBUST
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS NEAR OUTFLOW/SURFACE
FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND, BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 06/12/2026
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