455
ACUS11 KWNS 121758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121757
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-121900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VIRGINIA...PARTS OF WEST
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 121757Z - 121900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING ACROSS MD/VA/NC
WITH STRONG HEATING RESULTING IN VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS INTO THE AREA, WHICH MAY AID IN
STEERING STORMS IN A SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL, SUGGESTING MINIMAL DRYING/DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS.
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, STORMS MAY FORM IN THE AGITATED CU AREA
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER NORTHERN INTO NORTHWEST VA. SEVERAL MODELS
DEPICT A POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER
TODAY, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER WV AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY. SEVERAL
MODELS SUGGEST ANY SUCH CONVECTION AND/OR OUTFLOWS MAY INSTIGATE NEW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND
PERHAPS NORTHERN NC.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 06/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702
38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880
36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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