208
FNUS22 KWNS 121933
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED SOUTHEASTWARD
TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU WITHIN NORTHWESTERN NM AND
NORTHEASTERN AZ. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN
USHERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND CO PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER PWATS (0.8-1.5") ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND NM, CHANCES FOR MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THESE
AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CO PLATEAU DEPICT MUCH LOWER
PWATS (0.5-0.8") AND A DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AMID SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND FAST STORM MOTIONS, PROMOTING ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY EXACERBATE
ANY NEW AND ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE REGION.
OVER THE CO ROCKIES, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS WILL EMERGE WHERE RH OF 15-20% AND 10-20 MPH WINDS OVERLAP
DRY FUELS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN GAP-FLOW AND TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0155 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWEST, A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY.
AS THIS FEATURE AND RELATED ASCENT GLANCE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WITH A FOCUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BENEATH THE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, FAVORABLE FOR
MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION (90TH-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS),
LIGHTING-INDUCED IGNITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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