398
ACUS11 KWNS 130443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130442
MOZ000-KSZ000-130645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130442Z - 130645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE COMING
HOURS ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST KANSAS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED
AND TRANSIENT TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 20-40 MINUTES, A PAIR OF INCIPIENT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EMERGED WITHIN A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM
NEAR EMPORIA, KS SOUTHWARD TO THE OK/KS BORDER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE RECENT UPTICK IN THE NOCTURNAL JET AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
EVIDENT IN THE KVNX AND KICT VWPS, WHICH BOTH SHOW A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND GROUND-RELATIVE SRH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A SUBTLE,
BUT DISCERNIBLE, MID-LEVEL WAVE MIGRATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
NE/IA TOWARDS KS/MO.
RECENT RAP ANALYSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEARLY UNCAPPED
MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS BETWEEN 850-800 MB, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE
LAYER OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN VWP OBSERVATIONS.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN KS. MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING STORMS, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30-40 KNOTS SHOULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 1.25 TO 1.75
INCHES IN DIAMETER).
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MO WITH
TIME, THOUGH CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL CLUSTERING MAY
FURTHER MODULATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
GIVEN THESE LIMITATIONS, WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37009460 37069585 37109644 37249673 37589691 38069693
38509668 38849632 39029560 38949472 38719418 38509372
38079339 37769330 37299337 37069355 36989370 37009460
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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