922
ACUS48 KWNS 130755
SWOD48
SPC AC 130753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION
...DAYS 5-6/WED-THU -- LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, AN INTENSIFYING 500 MB JET
STREAK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INCREASE TO 80-100
KT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS IA AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE STRONGLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR. AN ALL-HAZARDS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT APPEARS LIKELY. AN INTENSE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. THIS COULD
SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSING A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. A CONTINUED RISK FOR ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS, AND POSSIBLE MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS, WILL PERSIST
AS THE MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG AS IT
OVERSPREADS A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS.
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES OF AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES IS EVIDENT
IN VARIOUS NWP GUIDANCE, OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS AND MEAN
CALIBRATED ML/AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE IS
LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, THOUGH THE 15 PERCENT RISK AREAS MAY SHIFT
IN THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED, AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN FURTHER
REMOVED FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
..LEITMAN.. 06/13/2026
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