854
ACUS11 KWNS 130830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130830
IAZ000-NEZ000-131100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 130830Z - 131100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AN AXIS
OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANALYZED DIAGONALLY ACROSS KANSAS
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE RAP HAS MUCAPE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THIS AXIS IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE
INSTABILITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
THE INSTABILITY MAX HAVE A CAPPING INVERSION IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 45 KNOTS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. IF A SUPERCELL
CAN BECOME DOMINANT, THEN HAILSTONES OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42239846 42059925 41759968 41199981 40789975 40589951
40539915 40559849 40619761 40749647 41049608 41449601
41889609 42189628 42409664 42439707 42379750 42239846
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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