105
ACUS01 KWNS 131255
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MISSOURI VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AN ACTIVE SEVERE-WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED REGIONALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NEAR THE NOSE
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, AN INITIAL EARLY DAY SEVERE RISK
WILL FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE ELEVATED/INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE ONGOING JUST AFTER DAWN, INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY AS
STORMS SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, A MORE COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO PERSISTENT PREDAWN STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS, AS WELL
AS A DECAYED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ONE OR MORE RESIDUAL MCVS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE MCVS, AS THEY FOCUS DEEPER
CONVECTION ALONG MODIFYING OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES,
SHOULD INSPIRE RENEWED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZING CLUSTERS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH EVENING.
FARTHER WEST AND LATER IN THE DAY, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT, WITH THE MOST INTENSE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY FAVORING WHERE THE FRONT INTERCEPTS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/MODIFYING
OUTFLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WHICH COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT INITIAL INTENSE SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS THEN ORGANIZING CLUSTERS. ALL HAZARDS SEEM LIKELY
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, WITH DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY EVOLVING AS
THE MOST PROMINENT RISK THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SOME
SIGNIFICANT (75+ MPH) WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
ALSO EXIST, PARTICULARLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES, WITH MODIFYING OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
FACTOR ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN
KANSAS AND VICINITY.
..CAROLINAS/COASTAL SOUTHEAST
AMPLE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A FRONT WILL LEAD
TO MODERATELY STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY THE FRONT AND COASTAL SEA BREEZE. SOME
PULSE-TYPE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 06/13/2026
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