933
FNUS21 KWNS 131638
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 131700Z - 141200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA BASED
ON UPDATED GUIDANCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO
PLATEAU DEPICT WIDESPREAD RH VALUES OF 5-20%, OWING TO POOR
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MID/HIGH-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SONORA AND BAJA
REGIONS. MORNING CLOUD COVER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MAY INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ANY ISOLATED STORMS
THAT DO MATERIALIZE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. THE 00Z FGZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SAMPLED 0.72" PWAT, WHICH
IS RIGHT AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. AT 12Z, THE PHX
SOUNDING SAMPLED 1.23" PWAT, ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY
(AND BREAKING THE PREVIOUS DAILY MAX OF 1.08"). THESE OBSERVATIONS
ARE ON TRACK WITH SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PWAT, WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES (1" OR GREATER) ALONG/SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE
THE DRY-TO-WET THUNDERSTORM TRANSITION LIKELY EXISTS. SOME LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS THE GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH
MAY EXACERBATE ANY NEW/ONGOING WILDFIRES (SUCH AS THE BEAR FIRE IN
WESTERN NM).
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0111 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WITH MEAGER MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTS IN DEEP INVERTED-V
PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF 0.5-0.75 IN
AND TALL LCLS EXCEEDING 3.5 KM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, AND WITH ERCS IN THE 90TH-98TH PERCENTILE
RANGES, LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT INCREASES TO 1.0-1.25 IN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, SUGGESTING
THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS OF WHERE THE DRY-TO-WET THUNDERSTORM TRANSITION WILL SET UP
REMAINS UNCLEAR, SOME LIGHTNING IGNITIONS MAY BE SUPPORTED ON THE
PERIPHERY OF MORE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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