764
ACUS02 KWNS 131738
SWODY2
SPC AC 131737
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA.
.. SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGHING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY WITH
SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH A LONGER-WAVE TROUGH.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN US LATER IN THE DAY. AS THIS HAPPENS,
LOW-MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS,
PROVIDING EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60FS PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN
MLCAPE PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STRONG CONSIDERATION WAS
GIVEN TO INCREASING WIND PROBABILITIES TO 45% (LEVEL 3/ENHANCED)
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BUT OPTED TO DEFER
ANY UPGRADE TO LATER OUTLOOKS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL
OFFICES.
ADDITIONAL BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/NY. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THIS AREA, DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER. LINEAR BANDS AND CLUSTERS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
.. SOUTHEAST NM TO THE ARKLATEX
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW WILL EXTEND WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED CONVECTION
COLD POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/SOUTHWEST TX, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL. WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTION BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..MARSH.. 06/13/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page