237
ACUS11 KWNS 131850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131850
TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-132015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131850Z - 132015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA
DEPICTS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RECENTLY STALLED ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S
F) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG BUOYANCY (AROUND
3000 J/KG MLCAPE). AS CONTINUED INSOLATION CONTINUES TO ERODE
REMAINING INHIBITION, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW (SAMPLED BY THE SGF VWP)
DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCV ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION, WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS BRINGING AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE A QUICK TRANSITION TO A MULTICELL STORM
MODE YIELDS A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELL THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT
WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF GREATER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LARGELY
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHOULD A CORRIDOR OF GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOME EVIDENT, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36409414 36529394 36649374 36669337 36629196 36569108
36489069 36319043 36149019 35749007 35339016 35159036
35089075 35079118 35109186 35129295 35159375 35239427
35359443 35559450 35749451 35999437 36409414
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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