823
ACUS03 KWNS 131932
SWODY3
SPC AC 131931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
.. SYNOPSIS
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US ON MONDAY, DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW.
AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST STATES, STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST TO THE
ATLANTIC. FARTHER NORTH, A SECOND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTH-CENTRAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
.. SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING INTO A SOUTHEAST-MOVING MCS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
.. NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE
SAGGING/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FLOW THUS ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED. THAT SAID, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND THE NUMBER OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 5%.
.. NORTHERN PLAINS
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCANT ACROSS THE AREA,
STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY INTENSE UPDRAFT, ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED AND AT THIS TIME DOES NOT WARRANT UNCONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..MARSH.. 06/13/2026
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