212
ACUS01 KWNS 132003
SWODY1
SPC AC 132002
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
..20Z UPDATE
ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED
ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE
INITIALLY HAIL ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE ONSET OF CONVECTION FOLLOWED
BY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WIND THREAT ACROSS
EASTERN KS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AR, MO, AND OK. GIVEN THE
PREVALENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERSECTING THE FRONT PER RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CORRIDORS OF HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL AS ONE OR MORE MCSS DEVELOP,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN HOW PRODUCTIVE THESE CORRIDORS
WILL BE GIVE THE EXPECTATION OF UPSCALE GROWTH. FOR ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM DETAILS SEE MCDS #1122, #1123, AND #1124.
..MOORE.. 06/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026/
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SEVERAL DIFFERENT AREAS ARE ALREADY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTH-CENTRAL MO WHERE A BOWING
SEGMENT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND FARTHER
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL, WHERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY MODEST WARM-AIR
ADVECTION. MOST IMMEDIATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
BOWING SEGMENT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IA/NORTH-CENTRAL MO WHERE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THEREAFTER, EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO INTRODUCES NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST, AIDED BY MESOSCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN MCV TRAVERSING
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED OVER THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE
MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT ATTENDANT TO THE MCV. AS A RESULT, A FEW
STRONGER EMBEDDED MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LIKELY BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MORE COMPLEX SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MO CLUSTER, EXTENDING BACK FURTHER WESTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NE ARCING BACK THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER FAR
NORTHWEST KS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW EXISTS OVER SOUTHWEST
KS. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST IA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST KS LOW IN FAR SOUTHWEST
NE. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY, WITH THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MO CLUSTER LIKELY PLAYING A PART AS WELL.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECEDING
THE SURFACE LOWS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT, WITH THE MOST INTENSE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY FAVORING WHERE THE FRONT INTERCEPTS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS INTERSECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS. STRONG BUOYANCY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS, ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ONGOING MO CLUSTER. LIKE THE AREA FARTHER NORTHWEST, LARGE TO
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED INITIALLY. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS REGION COULD ACT AS A CORRIDOR FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AS THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MORE
IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MOST PROMINENT RISK WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT (75+ MPH) WIND GUSTS.
DESPITE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (I.E. HIGH
LCLS AND MODEST SURFACE WIND) AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
(I.E. OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARDS A LINEAR
MODE) ONLY SUGGEST A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT FROM DISCRETE
STORMS. A SOMEWHAT HIGHER TORNADO RISK COULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN ANY
MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE LINE THAT DEVELOPS, PARTICULARLY DURING
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.
..LOWER MI
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS, BEGINNING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MI NOW AND THEN EXTENDING BACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY RISKS ARE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS, BUT A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..CAROLINAS/COASTAL SOUTHEAST
AMPLE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY THE FRONT AND COASTAL SEA BREEZE. SOME
PULSE-TYPE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
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