301
ACUS11 KWNS 132018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132017
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-132215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 132017Z - 132215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH TIME.
SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE PROGRESSION
NORTHWARD OF BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOP AND DVN SUGGEST MLCAPE IS
SPREADING NORTHWARD FASTER THAN ADVERTISED. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
INCREASING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A DIFFUSE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER NORTH. DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS IS LIKELY IN THIS REGION AND ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING.
GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES (AROUND 40-50 KTS), INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR POSING A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THROUGH TIME AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST, TENDENCY WILL BE FOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND A SHIFT TO MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39969768 39689829 39679851 39729881 39859882 40619831
41169688 41549569 41709491 41409489 40489505 40059620
39969768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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