107
ACUS11 KWNS 132042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132041
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 132041Z - 132245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. THREATS
WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. INITIAL
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE PROFILES ARE DEEPLY MIXED. AS A RESULT INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED TO ESTABLISH BUT LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST
30-45 MINUTES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM)
ARE SPREADING EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S.
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO 70S HAVE
YIELDED MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
BEFORE TENDENCY TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE MAIN THREAT TO BECOME DAMAGING
WIND. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37020141 37640092 38559966 38989894 38919853 37729833
37149879 36729950 36260007 35800083 35860137 36180178
37020141
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page