737
ACUS11 KWNS 132229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132229
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 132229Z - 140030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN A FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
HAS FORMED IN NORTHEAST OK. THIS STORM IS IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AR. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY, THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM/MOIST AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG,
WITH THE INX VAD PROFILE SHOWING 25-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THESE EARLY CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN.
BY MID EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
MAY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. ALSO, CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR THESE REASON, A WATCH WILL
LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..HART/GLEASON.. 06/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36059499 36489589 36969613 37259550 37049413 35889320
35429327 35699444 36059499
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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