925
ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT, INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AMPLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
AROUND 40 KT OF FRONT-PARALLEL EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
INITIAL/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO MORE PREVALENT
UPSCALE-GROWING LINEAR MODES, WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR
GIVEN THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE WIND PROFILES.
..MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FOCUSING ON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS
WELL AS HIGH TERRAIN/BLUE RIDGE VICINITY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SEA
BREEZE AUGMENTATIONS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/COASTAL PLAIN. FROM
ROUGHLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD, UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
F DEWPOINTS AND DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
YIELD A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AHEAD OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL FAVOR EASTWARD-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AMID MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SEVERAL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY, A COUPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARKLATEX, THOUGH WEAKER DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 06/14/2026
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