276
FNUS21 KWNS 141645
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM VEF AND PHX
SAMPLED ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY PWATS, IN LINE WITH
GOES-DERIVED TOTAL PWAT PORTRAYING A GRADIENT OF 1-1.5" OR GREATER
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
DEPICTS MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA AND SONORA REGIONS,
WITH SOME THUNDERSHOWERS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR
CORNERS. AS WITH YESTERDAY, ERRATIC GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, EXACERBATING ANY NEW/ONGOING
FIRES (SUCH AS THE BEAR FIRE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO).
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN UPPER
PENINSULA, SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
25-35% RH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINFALL, SPARSE
FUELS, AND LIMITED DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRECLUDE THE
INTRODUCTION OF BROADER ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FIRE
CONCERNS MAY EMERGE WHERE POCKETS OF DRY FUELS EXIST.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM BAJA. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES, DEEPLY-MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES,
AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
MINIMAL DOWNDRAFT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WITH ERC FUEL GUIDANCE SHOWING WIDESPREAD 80TH-95TH ANNUAL
PERCENTILES, LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS WILL
POSE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE THE TRANSITION FROM DRY-TO-WET
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK AREA,
SOME TRIMMING WAS DONE TO EXCLUDE AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRIOR-DAY
WETTING RAINFALL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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