925
ACUS02 KWNS 141733
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
.. SYNOPSIS
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON
MONDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL BE SEVERAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANGUP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES, WITH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND A
CONTINENTAL COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS,
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
.. SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EASTERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRAW MODEST
SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
COLORADO (UPPER 40FS DEWPOINTS) AND PLAINS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
(UPPER 50FS DEWPOINTS).
AT THE SAME TIME, NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SOUTHERLY
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAXIMUM DEVELOPS.
THERMODYNAMICALLY, THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE LAPSE RATES, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN OR
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD THEN SUPPORT
STORM MOVEMENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH TIME CONGEALING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EAST/SOUTHEAST MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
A SMALL 15% HAIL OR WIND PROBABILITY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES
IF CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
.. NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
DESPITE SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED WITH DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. A 5% WIND AREA WAS CONSIDERED, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
COVERAGE OF GUSTY WINDS PRECLUDED THE INTRODUCTION AT THIS TIME.
.. NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND FLORIDA
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SAGGING/STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT CAPE GENERATION, BUT
DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS AREA
IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION, BUT HIGH WATER CONTENT MAY RESULT IN A
FEW WET DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THE
OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT UNCONDITIONAL 5%
WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE REEVALUATED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
..MARSH.. 06/14/2026
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