372
ACUS11 KWNS 141741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141740 COR
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-141745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN INDIANA...PORTIONS OF OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141740Z - 141745Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FILTERED DAYTIME HEATING HAS WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN OHIO INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S HAS YIELDED MLCAPE AROUND
500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPENING, WITH
AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM ANALYZED IN SPC MESOANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
45-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
DOWNSTREAM. INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES INTO PA,
WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT MAY
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LINE EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. A WATCH WILL WILL
BE NEEDED SOON TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 06/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39408067 39038292 39248470 40018526 40788496 41318431
41398314 41518201 41578183 41808034 41557961 41157936
40667941 39877965 39408067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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