556
ACUS11 KWNS 141750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141750
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-141945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141750Z - 141945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS LEE TROUGHING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE NOTED CLOSE TO THE WEAK LOW IN THE NC/SC/GA
BORDER VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM, HUMID AIR MASS (SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FFC
OBSERVED SOUNDING). DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F, RELATIVELY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODESTLY MORE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PROFILES INLAND ARE SUPPORTING ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY,
WITH 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE INDICATED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WEAK
DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR AN
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM MODE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONALLY
MORE WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGH
PWAT CONTENTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
FOR STORM LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE MAGNITUDE TO REMAIN
LIMITED, WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
TAE...
LAT...LON 36378159 36468127 36488100 36418070 36288047 35748035
35178031 34108063 32698176 31768230 31408249 31158274
31058321 31128417 31368458 31578468 32268468 32818468
33708481 34408490 34888492 35138493 35378486 35508472
35598435 35608378 35528298 35728232 36108184 36378159
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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