270
ACUS11 KWNS 150156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150156
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-150400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 150156Z - 150400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, A STRONG STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY. THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING AND THE RECENT VWP FROM
KENX DEPICT A VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER, VERY WEAK BUOYANCY WAS PRESENT ON THE 00Z ALY
SOUNDING. WHILE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE
EVENING, THE NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HAMPER ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION.
A LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE EVENING. UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY CONTINUE TO BE HAMPERED
BY WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT ANY STRONGER SUSTAINED CELLS COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO, GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE. DUE TO THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY, WATCH
ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED UNLIKELY, THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK IN DESTABILIZATION AND STORM
ORGANIZATION.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 06/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 39857431 42157421 42557488 43147382 43377311 43257275
42057291 41237319 40477354 39787393 39857431
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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