805
ACUS48 KWNS 150759
SWOD48
SPC AC 150757
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/THURSDAY -- MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS
QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL. EARLY DAY CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER MAY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH FROM RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF STRONG
FLOW ATOP A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN OHIO/EASTERN KY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOME IN THE COMING DAYS AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
..DAYS 5-8/FRIDAY-MONDAY
A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK AS RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO TX AND THE GULF COAST.
ON SATURDAY, NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
IS EXPECTED BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST MAY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS, RESULTING
IN SOME RETURN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AND PREDICTABILITY IS
LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 06/15/2026
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