295
ACUS01 KWNS 151247
SWODY1
SPC AC 151245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BENEATH A NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME, LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
TODAY WILL INFLUENCE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOISTENING REGIONALLY, IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WITH DIURNAL
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE RATON
MESA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO/FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AND COULD EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EVENING. MODEST BUOYANCY AND
30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR REGIONALLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED MULTICELLS, WITH POTENTIAL CONSOLIDATION
INTO SMALL ORGANIZING SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.
..DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA
INFLUENCED BY A CLIPPER-TYPE SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED, DIURNALLY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD YIELD SOME HAIL, AND MORE SO,
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.
..GULF COAST/COASTAL SOUTHEAST
SOME STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SOUTH OF A FRONT. HOWEVER, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE
SEVERE-STORM RISK TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINING LIMITED OVERALL.
..GUYER/BROYLES.. 06/15/2026
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