103
ACUS11 KWNS 151746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151746
NDZ000-SDZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151746Z - 151945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION (ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
MLCAPE) AS OF 1730 UTC. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION IS QUICKLY ERODING, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY RECENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. AS SURFACE HEATING
RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WITH
500-700 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING), HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST, LCLS AROUND 2.5 KM WILL
SUPPORT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (30+ KTS
SAMPLED AT 1 KM AGL BY THE BIS VAD PROFILE). THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE
LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 06/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47670051 47750003 47729955 47609879 47439824 47189789
46549748 45739734 44919762 44239853 44119901 44179951
44279986 44410018 44580047 44950085 45320112 45880148
46650168 47140168 47530126 47670051
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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