284
ACUS48 KWNS 160755
SWOD48
SPC AC 160753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/FRI - CAROLINAS
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS VICINITY
ON FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY TEMPER DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN.
..DAY 5/SAT - CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE
MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NE. MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AMID
STRENGTHENING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
..DAYS 6-8/SUN-TUE
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT
AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. OVERALL,
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..LEITMAN.. 06/16/2026
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