343
ACUS03 KWNS 161934
SWODY3
SPC AC 161932
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KENTUCKY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC, A BELT OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH OF THE MID/LOWER
OHIO VALLEY LATITUDE, HOWEVER. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ALONG AT LEAST PARTS OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THAT LIMITATION, THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE MODERATE (MID-ATLANTIC/PARTS OF NORTHEAST)
TO STRONG (MID/LOWER OHIO VALLEY) BUOYANCY. GIVEN THE STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID-SOUTH
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SOUTH OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT. THOUGH
THESE REGIONS WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS,
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHEAST
THE REMNANTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, EVEN MUTED SURFACE
HEATING WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. WITH LOCALLY
ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR THE REMNANT LOW, ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, HIGHER PROBABILITIES COULD BE WARRANTED.
..WENDT.. 06/16/2026
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