272
ACUS11 KWNS 162049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162048
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-162245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162048Z - 162245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK, WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEVELOPING CUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE LOW-60S F ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING, THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF 1000-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OWING TO RELATIVELY
NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND EROSION OF REMAINING INHIBITION BY SURFACE HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
40-50+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING LARGE HAIL. WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO TEMPER
STORM LONGEVITY/MAINTENANCE, BUT AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF LARGE HAIL TO
AROUND GOLF-BALL SIZE (1.75") MAY BE POSSIBLE PENDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
FARTHER WEST, MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. CONTINUED HEATING/MIXING WILL
YIELD A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LCLS RISING TO 2-2.5 KM. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
..CHALMERS/HART.. 06/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36129652 35849769 35649853 34970026 34810082 34800117
34870150 35150170 35570175 36210147 36880103 37380061
37640019 37879967 38009927 38089852 38059720 37989591
37939513 37859463 37739438 37489416 37019395 36609398
36369430 36249467 36219530 36129652
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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