323
ACUS11 KWNS 162151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162150
INZ000-ILZ000-162315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL IN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...
VALID 162150Z - 162315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF A THREAT
FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL (1 TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER). LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS (55-65 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. A
BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ARCHING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY. THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING AS THE
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAFAYETTE, IN.
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS---WHICH CONTAIN A FEW SUPERCELL LEFT-RIGHT
SPLITS---SURFACE CONDITIONS OF LOWER 70S DEG F TEMPERATURES AND MID
50S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD 500-MB TEMPERATURES (-16 TO -18 DEG
C) AND GRADUALLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT BENEATH
80-KT 300 MB WESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT, SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD, BUT LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
..SMITH.. 06/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40268572 39618691 39368841 39438886 39638888 39788878
39888806 40098748 40568702 41018674 41158592 41018550
40778538 40268572
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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