971
ACUS02 KWNS 171725
SWODY2
SPC AC 171723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KENTUCKY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEP
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGIONS. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH DURING
THE MORNING, PARTICULARLY FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION,
STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL STILL PROMOTE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. BOWING
SEGMENTS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY, BUT
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL HAVE STRONG 850 MB WINDS DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS, THIS IS WHERE
THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE MARGINALLY GREATER.
..KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON
ACCOUNT OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL WEAKEN MUCH QUICKER IN THESE AREAS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CELLS AND LINEAR
SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OZARKS
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME, THE FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD. STRONG HEATING OF A 70+ F DEWPOINT AIRMASS WILL
POTENTIALLY PROMOTE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING,
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL JET OCCURS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CLUSTER INTO A SMALL MCS WITHIN WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS.
WHERE AND IF THIS OCCURS IS NOT CERTAIN. SOME RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS
COULD EXTENT INTO THE EVENING IF THIS OCCURS.
..SOUTHEAST
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL MOVE THROUGH A VERY MOIST
(70+ F DEWPOINTS) AIRMASS. LOCAL SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE MODESTLY
ENHANCED BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA MAY SEE GREATER SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE HERE. EVEN SO, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER) WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..WENDT.. 06/17/2026
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