744
ACUS11 KWNS 171917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171916
NMZ000-AZZ000-172115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171916Z - 172115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S F WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID-40S TO LOW-50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST (AS OF 19 UTC).
MODIFYING THE 18Z EPZ OBSERVED SOUNDING FOR THESE CONDITIONS, A
DEEP, INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING TO NEAR 500
MB IS EVIDENT, WITH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9-9.5
C/KM AND LCLS OF 3.5+ KM. AS CONTINUED INSOLATION RESULTS IN
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING BREACHED, SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WHILE
WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION, INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.
..CHALMERS/HART.. 06/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31270807 31230915 31261080 31481100 32181132 32501139
33121133 33361124 33531102 33551039 33430960 33290899
33120851 32850816 32520788 32000769 31810767 31680779
31690808 31270807
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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