286
ACUS11 KWNS 172244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172243
MOZ000-KSZ000-172345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 343...345...
VALID 172243Z - 172345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES 343, 345 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ALSO EVIDENT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EXTREME
EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT,
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION INTO
EARLY EVENING, WITH A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT. WHILE MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM (ESPECIALLY WITH WESTWARD EXTENT),
MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR A TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VEERED,
SOME ENLARGEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS STILL NOTED ON REGIONAL
VWPS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF NEAR/ABOVE 150
M2/S2 SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A TORNADO
WATCH WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT.
..DEAN.. 06/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38189545 38829388 39139337 39419288 39409261 38919255
38479258 38149271 37799330 37399482 37229582 37199643
37279668 37609684 37959629 38189545
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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