963
ACUS48 KWNS 180704
SWOD48
SPC AC 180703
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/SUNDAY - MID-MS VALLEY VICINITY
A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MID-MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, THOUGH THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THIS
OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. FURTHERMORE, AN ONGOING MCS COULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS, RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS. SOME WHERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY, EITHER FROM REINVIGORATED
MORNING CONVECTION, OR FROM NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY INTO PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES, WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..DAYS 5-8/MONDAY-THURSDAY - PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF NOTABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK IS LIKELY EACH DAY, THIS RISK WILL BE DRIVEN
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EACH DAY. OVERALL
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
..LEITMAN.. 06/18/2026
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